Saturday, April 19, 2008

Taking a Look at Forex Technical Analysis Theory

Making use of charts to understand the flow of the currency market is an essential tool for the Forex trader. The use of such charts can help determine the flow of the market and guide the Forex investor into make better investment decisions in the future. The theory that involves technical analysis of the Forex market includes five categories that one should be familiar with.

These five categories would include the indicators, number theory, waves, gaps, and trends.

Relative Strength Index or RSI and Stochastic oscillator are examples of Indicators. RSI would measure the ratio of up and down moves and eventually, would normalize the calculation in such a way wherein the index is shown in ranges of zero to a hundred. The Stochastic oscillator, on the other hand, is often used to convey conditions of over buying or over selling on a zero to one hundred percent scale. This indicator bases itself on observing strong up trends wherein period closing price will end up gathering towards the higher level of a period's range. The divergence that occurs in between stochastic lines and price activity of an underlying instrument can relay powerful signals for trading.

The second category or number theory would include Fibonacci numbers and Gann numbers. The Fibonacci numbers, would entail that the sequence is 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 and so on. Such a number sequence is made by the addition of the first 2 numbers wherein the third number is the outcome. Gann numbers on the other hand, draws its roots from the use of methods developed for instruments of trade that bases themselves on time or price equivalents. Angles in charts were used in order to determine areas of support and resistance, predicting future trends and changes.

Thirdly, there are the Waves which is based on the Elliot wave theory that studies wave patterns that are repetitive in nature and involves also the Fibonacci sequence of numbers.

The fourth category involves the Gaps. These are spaces that are left on a bar chart wherein there has been no trading to have taken place. There are many forms of gaps. An up gap, for instance, is created when the smallest price on a day's trading has become high in comparison to the highest high price of the day before.

Lastly, we have the Trends! This would refer to a price's direction or to the direction of various prices in the market. The rising peaks would pertain to an up-trend, while the falling ones, would pertain to downtrends.

The technical analyst bears no concern over the whole picture of the market. Nor is he concerned with any of the factors which would affect that given market. His only main concern is on the market's instruments and their perspective activities.

Read More..

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9658. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on GBP USD. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 1,9400 (260 pips).

Resistances
1,9710 - 1,9750
Supports
1,9650 - 1,9575
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 09 avr 2008 06:00 GMT


.

Read More..

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
102,33. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. ForexTrend 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should continue to move in 101,70 / 103,00 range. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
102,90 - 103,10
Supports
102,20 - 101,70
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 09 avr 2008 05:52 GMT


.

Read More..

USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,0138. USD CHF is in a range between 1,0070 and 1,0165. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 1,0070 / 1,0165 range. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,0165 - 1,0220
Supports
1,0120 - 1,0070
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 09 avr 2008 05:55 GMT


.

Read More..

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5703. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should find a support above 1,5700 / 1,5680. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,5650. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,5730 - 1,5770
Supports
1,5680 - 1,5650
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

updated 09 avr 2008 06:03


.

Read More..

Thursday, April 3, 2008

The dollar failed to hold on to gains versus the European currencies and closed flat versus the euro, franc, plus the yen, and lower against the pound. The early strength of the US currency followed signs that the credit crisis is finally starting to impact the Eurozone. Regional retail sales fell and a German bank needs $9.4 billion to cover mounting losses. But the sliding US services ISM and the upcoming release of the non-farm payrolls weakened the dollar later in the day. The dollar downtrend remains in place.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar reversed early losses again to close flat on Thursday. My model remains short, but I prefer to be square. I expect a move higher.


Initial resistance now comes at 1.5745. Then, there is resistance at 1.5770. Distant resistance now comes at 1.5904 from a pivot high.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5605. This is followed by 1.5565 and 1.5535. Below 1.5480, there is distant support is now seen at 1.5350.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen consolidated on Thursday after surging for two days. My model remains long. Once again, hold long positions VERY carefully because the upside seems to be in its final stages. The key level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.

Immediate resistance is at 102.80. Above 103.40 there is resistance at 104.10.

Initial support is seen at 101.80. The next level is 101.15. This is followed by 100.25 from a 50-point Gann pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. 101.25.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar reversed early losses on Thursday to rally after forming a bullish reversal a day earlier. Model went long. I expect a rally.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.9995. A break above 2.0060 would signal a further upmove to the peak at 2.0190.

Immediate support is seen at 1.9875. The next level is 1.9805. Below 1.9730, there is distant support at 1.9620.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed gains to close flat on Thursday. The medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.0060. This is followed by 0.9950. Below 0.9880, distant support is now pegged at 0.9775.

Initial resistance is still seen at 1.0155. The next level is 1.0200. Further resistance is at 1.0250. Distant resistance is at 1.0390

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish


.

Read More..

GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9950. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on GBP USD. The price should find a resistance below 2,0000. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,9970 - 2,0000
Supports
1,9920 - 1,9900
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 04 avr 2008 06:13 GMT
Print


.

Read More..

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
102,58. USD JPY is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The price should find a resistance below 103,00. The consolidation should continue. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
102,70 - 103,00
Supports
102,15 - 101,50
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 04 avr 2008 06:06 GMT


.

Read More..

USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,0116. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,0135 - 1,0200
Supports
1,0075 - 1,0000
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 04 avr 2008 06:08 GMT


.

Read More..

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5676. EUR USD is in a range between 1,5520 and 1,5700. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is high. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,5700 - 1,5730
Supports
1,5620 - 1,5520
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar


.

Read More..

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9790. GBP USD is in an downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The consolidation should continue. The price should find a support above 1,9740. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,9400.

Resistances
1,9840 - 1,9890
Supports
1,9745 - 1,9720
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 02 avr 2008 14:00 GMT


.

Read More..

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
102,43. USD JPY broke 100,20 resistance. USD JPY is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The uptrend should continue on 103,50 (110 pips) resistance.

Resistances
102,60 - 103,50
Supports
101,70 - 101,50
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 02 avr 2008 13:53 GMT


.

Read More..

USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,0159. USD CHF broke 1,0000 resistance. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD CHF. The price should find a resistance below 1,0165. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 1,0250 (90 pips).

Resistances
1,0165 - 1,0250
Supports
1,0090 - 1,0000
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 02 avr 2008 13:56 GMT


.

Read More..

EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5591. EUR USD broke 1,5750 support. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,5670 - 1,5750
Supports
1,5580 - 1,5525
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

updated 02 avr 2008 14:02 GMT


.

Read More..