Tuesday, July 15, 2008

trading

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Each forex trader must have his own strategy, we can’t rely on others strategies and forex signal, we can build up more profitable technique.
For me forex trading is not easy and it needs a good focus , but we can make profit by doing simple techniques and follow it. Don’t use difficult economic indicators, indicators describe the market and not predict it.
I develop a strategy which is not rely on news release, we can do that by closing a trade before a news release or open it after a news release, and by this way you will not be stopped out because a report came worse than your expectation. The main thing in forex trading is the entry point, good entry point leads us to profit, bad entry point leads us to loose. Maybe you hear a lot of traders telling you do not trade against the trend, and that’s right but it is not enough, you must know where to enter a trend , time is the most important.Forex trading gives you many chances, you must change your way of thinking slightly and see trading from a diverse viewpoint and have our own forex signal.

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some principles

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Do you want to increase your profit by applying some of the more important forex currency trading rules? Do it consistently with a suitable amount of discipline. Here are some of my principles that can help you improve your chances of success, practice them in your trading on a regular basis. Set up and practice specific goals. In forex trading, the primary goal is clearly to make money. Have a specific idea of what you want to achieve in your trading and the exact time frame you want to achieve it, make your efforts more focused. Develop your discipline and personal forex currency trading system. In order for any business to succeed it must have measurable goals that are both rational and possible. The common part of forex traders who often find themselves on the losing end of a trade make the same common and frequent mistakes.

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my experience

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Are you sick and tired watching your investments drop but at the same time others make money?Maybe you have read thousands of forex trading e-book but it doesn`t work and your forex trading systems failed.
Have you bought forex trading systems or methods and your trading outcome still were not up to scratch.Why you experience with unproductive results? I am using well known indicators which are offered in most free or fee based forex charts. Keep on trying is the rule that must be followed to become an expert in anything.
A forex trading method with a high winning percentage is reward psychologically, keeps your confidence high and enjoy trading. A string of profits will build your confidence. If you look for a system with no losing trades, forget trading and find a different trade or hobby. Losses have to kept small and wins should be larger than losses. Soon you will know how to “read’ the market better, when to let your profits run, how to use higher time frames to measure how price will react on lower time frame charts and how strategies can be implemented without buying any costly software or subscribing to expensive data services.

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Saturday, April 19, 2008

Taking a Look at Forex Technical Analysis Theory

Making use of charts to understand the flow of the currency market is an essential tool for the Forex trader. The use of such charts can help determine the flow of the market and guide the Forex investor into make better investment decisions in the future. The theory that involves technical analysis of the Forex market includes five categories that one should be familiar with.

These five categories would include the indicators, number theory, waves, gaps, and trends.

Relative Strength Index or RSI and Stochastic oscillator are examples of Indicators. RSI would measure the ratio of up and down moves and eventually, would normalize the calculation in such a way wherein the index is shown in ranges of zero to a hundred. The Stochastic oscillator, on the other hand, is often used to convey conditions of over buying or over selling on a zero to one hundred percent scale. This indicator bases itself on observing strong up trends wherein period closing price will end up gathering towards the higher level of a period's range. The divergence that occurs in between stochastic lines and price activity of an underlying instrument can relay powerful signals for trading.

The second category or number theory would include Fibonacci numbers and Gann numbers. The Fibonacci numbers, would entail that the sequence is 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 and so on. Such a number sequence is made by the addition of the first 2 numbers wherein the third number is the outcome. Gann numbers on the other hand, draws its roots from the use of methods developed for instruments of trade that bases themselves on time or price equivalents. Angles in charts were used in order to determine areas of support and resistance, predicting future trends and changes.

Thirdly, there are the Waves which is based on the Elliot wave theory that studies wave patterns that are repetitive in nature and involves also the Fibonacci sequence of numbers.

The fourth category involves the Gaps. These are spaces that are left on a bar chart wherein there has been no trading to have taken place. There are many forms of gaps. An up gap, for instance, is created when the smallest price on a day's trading has become high in comparison to the highest high price of the day before.

Lastly, we have the Trends! This would refer to a price's direction or to the direction of various prices in the market. The rising peaks would pertain to an up-trend, while the falling ones, would pertain to downtrends.

The technical analyst bears no concern over the whole picture of the market. Nor is he concerned with any of the factors which would affect that given market. His only main concern is on the market's instruments and their perspective activities.

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Tuesday, April 8, 2008

GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9658. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on GBP USD. The downtrend should continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 1,9400 (260 pips).

Resistances
1,9710 - 1,9750
Supports
1,9650 - 1,9575
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 09 avr 2008 06:00 GMT


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USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
102,33. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. ForexTrend 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should continue to move in 101,70 / 103,00 range. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
102,90 - 103,10
Supports
102,20 - 101,70
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 09 avr 2008 05:52 GMT


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USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,0138. USD CHF is in a range between 1,0070 and 1,0165. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in 1,0070 / 1,0165 range. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,0165 - 1,0220
Supports
1,0120 - 1,0070
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 09 avr 2008 05:55 GMT


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EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5703. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should find a support above 1,5700 / 1,5680. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,5650. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,5730 - 1,5770
Supports
1,5680 - 1,5650
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

updated 09 avr 2008 06:03


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Thursday, April 3, 2008

The dollar failed to hold on to gains versus the European currencies and closed flat versus the euro, franc, plus the yen, and lower against the pound. The early strength of the US currency followed signs that the credit crisis is finally starting to impact the Eurozone. Regional retail sales fell and a German bank needs $9.4 billion to cover mounting losses. But the sliding US services ISM and the upcoming release of the non-farm payrolls weakened the dollar later in the day. The dollar downtrend remains in place.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar reversed early losses again to close flat on Thursday. My model remains short, but I prefer to be square. I expect a move higher.


Initial resistance now comes at 1.5745. Then, there is resistance at 1.5770. Distant resistance now comes at 1.5904 from a pivot high.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.5605. This is followed by 1.5565 and 1.5535. Below 1.5480, there is distant support is now seen at 1.5350.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen consolidated on Thursday after surging for two days. My model remains long. Once again, hold long positions VERY carefully because the upside seems to be in its final stages. The key level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.

Immediate resistance is at 102.80. Above 103.40 there is resistance at 104.10.

Initial support is seen at 101.80. The next level is 101.15. This is followed by 100.25 from a 50-point Gann pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. 101.25.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar reversed early losses on Thursday to rally after forming a bullish reversal a day earlier. Model went long. I expect a rally.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.9995. A break above 2.0060 would signal a further upmove to the peak at 2.0190.

Immediate support is seen at 1.9875. The next level is 1.9805. Below 1.9730, there is distant support at 1.9620.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss reversed gains to close flat on Thursday. The medium-term outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.0060. This is followed by 0.9950. Below 0.9880, distant support is now pegged at 0.9775.

Initial resistance is still seen at 1.0155. The next level is 1.0200. Further resistance is at 1.0250. Distant resistance is at 1.0390

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish


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GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9950. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on GBP USD. The price should find a resistance below 2,0000. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,9970 - 2,0000
Supports
1,9920 - 1,9900
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 04 avr 2008 06:13 GMT
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USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
102,58. USD JPY is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The price should find a resistance below 103,00. The consolidation should continue. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
102,70 - 103,00
Supports
102,15 - 101,50
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 04 avr 2008 06:06 GMT


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USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,0116. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,0135 - 1,0200
Supports
1,0075 - 1,0000
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 04 avr 2008 06:08 GMT


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EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5676. EUR USD is in a range between 1,5520 and 1,5700. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is high. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,5700 - 1,5730
Supports
1,5620 - 1,5520
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar


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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9790. GBP USD is in an downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The consolidation should continue. The price should find a support above 1,9740. If the support is broken then the target will be 1,9400.

Resistances
1,9840 - 1,9890
Supports
1,9745 - 1,9720
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 02 avr 2008 14:00 GMT


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USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
102,43. USD JPY broke 100,20 resistance. USD JPY is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. 1H, 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD JPY. The uptrend should continue on 103,50 (110 pips) resistance.

Resistances
102,60 - 103,50
Supports
101,70 - 101,50
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 02 avr 2008 13:53 GMT


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USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
1,0159. USD CHF broke 1,0000 resistance. USD CHF is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on USD CHF. The price should find a resistance below 1,0165. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 1,0250 (90 pips).

Resistances
1,0165 - 1,0250
Supports
1,0090 - 1,0000
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 02 avr 2008 13:56 GMT


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EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5591. EUR USD broke 1,5750 support. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
1,5670 - 1,5750
Supports
1,5580 - 1,5525
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

updated 02 avr 2008 14:02 GMT


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Monday, March 31, 2008

Asian Morning Update 1st April 2008

Dollar fails to breach old lows…

European releases overnight:

March Forecast Actual
Euro-zone CPI (Est) (YoY) +3.3% +3.5%
Italian CPI (P) (MoM) +0.3% +0.5%
Italian CPI (P) (YoY) +3.1% +3.3%
Euro-zone Business Climate Indicator 0.70 0.80
Euro-zone Consumer Confidence -12.0 -12.0
Euro-zone Economic Confidence 100.0 99.6
Euro-zone Industrial Confidence 1.0 0.0
Euro-zone Services Confidence 10.0 9.0

Mixed numbers from Europe with inflation pushing above forecasts and in general confidence numbers ticking lower. That consumer confidence remained stable is a surprise given recent softer indications from the retail PMI. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the PMI releases fair over the course of this week and could set a marker for future numbers.

Even ECB board members are not bouncing with confidence. If they were then interest rates would be higher. Yesterday Liikanen confirmed that by highlighting the continuing risk of a global slowdown. It is clear too that he doesn’t rule out worsening conditions in Europe when commenting “experience and history shows that price stickiness in Europe is higher than for instance in America, so changes take place at a slower pace.”

Even Bafin, the German banking supervisor, is estimating a minimum of EUR 43bn in writedowns and possibly as high as EUR70bn. There are also risks for LBO’s which have been facing problems in meeting debt repayments so the seeds are there to be grown.

And while both ECB and BOE make warnings on second round inflation frankly control is mostly out of their hands as oil prices remain at extremely elevated levels that are causing consumers to hold back on spending as they see their wealth at risk.

These are testing times indeed.

States releases overnight:

March Forecast Actual
Chicago PMI 46.5 48.2
N.Y. Current Business Conditions 43.4 (prior) 46.3

There was limited data from the States with just the Chicago PMI and N.Y. business conditions which both saw healthy upticks. Certainly it is nowhere close to indicating any strong recovery but they provide time for the market to consolidate and for the fiscal stimulation to begin taking effect next month.

So while the doomsayers were out in force crying for a weaker Dollar as it spiked towards the 1.5901 peak there were no signs of follow-through and conversely a sharp pullback. While it shows the market’s preference to sell Dollars it also suggests that momentum conditions aren’t quite right yet.

Indeed, there still remain several possibilities at this stage of the game and one of those could be a return to the 1.5340 low…

However, as we start the day in Asia focus will be on the Japanese Tankan report and the growing pessimism that has been developing as the penny has clicked that Japan is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The domestic economy has never recovered from the 1980’s bubble and the export economy is facing a bleak outlook as the globalization bubble also threatens to dump the country back in not only recession but the possibility of stagflation.

More later once the daily analysis has been done…

There following releases are due from Asia due today:

Australia
March AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index
The RBA are due to announce their rate decision

Japan
Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturer’s Index 13.0
Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturer’s Outlook 9.0
Q1 Tankan Non-Manufacturing 12.0
Q1 Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 10.0



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GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9837. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The downtrend should continue on 1,9720 (110 pips) support.

Resistances
1,9875 - 1,9935
Supports
1,9810 - 1,9770
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 01 avr 2008 05:57 GMT


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USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
99,94. USD JPY is in a range between 99,10 and 100,20. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position..

Resistances
100,20 - 100,70
Supports
99,65 - 99,10
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 01 avr 2008 05:51 GMT


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USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
0,9942. There is an horizontal range between 0,9900 and 0,9960. Support and resistance are given by Bollinger bands. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. If the support is broken then the target will be 0,9800.

Resistances
0,9965 - 0,9990
Supports
0,9930 - 0,9890
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 01 avr 2008 05:53 GMT


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EUR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5775. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The consolidation should continue. The price should continue to move in 1,5725 / 1,5860 range. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 1,5950.

Resistances
1,5805 - 1,5850
Supports
1,5725 - 1,5700
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

updated 01 avr 2008 05:59 GMT



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GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,9876. GBP USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on GBP USD. The downtrend should continue on 1,9800 support.

Resistances
1,9900 - 1,9975
Supports
1,9800 - 1,9765
Long term chart
GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

updated 31 mars 2008 14:14 GMT


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USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
99,53. There is an horizontal range between 99,00 and 100,00. Support and resistance are given by Bollinger bands. USD JPY moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. If the support is broken then the target will be 97,00.

Resistances
100,00 - 100,90
Supports
99,10 - 98,70
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 31 mars 2008 14:08 GMT


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SD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc
Short term (Intraday)
0,9938. USD CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should find a resistance below 1,0000. The downtrend should resume.
=> We could take a short position at 0,9940. We will put the stop loss above 0,9980 (-40 pips). The targets are 0,9800 (+140 pips) 0,9700 (+240 pips). Each trade is dangerous, take care and put your stop loss. Trade configuration (1 Speculative -> 4 Trend following): 2.

Resistances
0,9960 - 0,9990
Supports
0,9920 - 0,9870
Long term chart
USD/CHF - Dollar Swiss Franc

updated 31 mars 2008 14:10 GMT

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UR/USD - Euro Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
1,5808. EUR USD is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The price should find a support above 1,5790. The uptrend should continue to gather momentum.
=> We could take a long position at 1,5800. We will put the stop loss below 1,5750 (-50 pips). The targets are 1,5900 (+100 pisp) 1,6000 (+200 pips). Each trade is dangerous, take care and put your stop loss. Trade configuration (1 Speculative -> 4 Trend following): 3.

Resistances
1,5820 - 1,5860
Supports
1,5790 - 1,5750
Long term chart
EUR/USD - Euro Dollar

updated 31 mars 2008 14:16 GMT



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